France HCOB Services PMI Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

EUR1.2

EUR

Actual:

46.9

Forecast: 45.7

Previous/Revision:

49.2

Period: Dec 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 48.2

Period: Jan 2025

What Does It Measure?

The France HCOB Services PMI Final measures the business activity level within the French service sector, which includes industries such as retail, hospitality, and transportation. It evaluates key areas like new business orders, employment, and expectations for future activity with a particular focus on changes in activity levels, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction, making it a national indicator.

Frequency

The France HCOB Services PMI Final is released monthly, following an initial preliminary estimate, typically in the early part of the subsequent month to provide revised and more accurate data.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders focus on the services PMI as it offers critical insight into the health of the service sector of France, which is a significant component of the country's economy. Higher-than-expected PMI readings tend to be bullish for the euro and French equities as they suggest economic expansion, while weaker readings can have bearish effects, dampening investor sentiment and potentially leading to lower demand for French stocks and the euro.

What Is It Derived From?

The PMI is derived from monthly surveys of purchasing managers at more than 400 companies within the service sector. The survey uses a diffusion index with responses weighted to reflect the economic significance of the sub-sectors, offering a timely snapshot of business conditions within the industry.

Description

The France HCOB Services PMI, provided in both preliminary and final forms, captures the month-over-month changes in business conditions of the service sector, focusing especially on output, new orders, and employment. Preliminary data is based on initial responses and offers immediate market insights but can lead to market volatility due to its early nature. In contrast, the final data provides a more comprehensive snapshot by incorporating late responses, which may lead to market sentiment adjustments such as expectation corrections or investment strategy tweaks.

Additional Notes

The services PMI is a leading economic indicator as it provides a timely update on business conditions before official statistics, helping market participants and policymakers anticipate broader economic trends. It can also be compared to other PMI measures globally to assess relative economic performance and sector-specific growth trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bullish for French Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for Euro, Bearish for French Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 04, 2024	46.9	45.7	49.2	1.2
Nov 06, 2024	49.2	48.3	49.6	0.9
Oct 03, 2024	49.6	48.3	55	1.3
Sep 04, 2024	55	55	50.1
Aug 05, 2024	50.1	50.7	49.6	-0.6
Jul 03, 2024	49.6	48.8	49.3	0.8
Jun 05, 2024	49.3	49.4	51.3	-0.1
May 06, 2024	51.3	50.5	48.3	0.8
Apr 04, 2024	48.3	47.8	48.4	0.5
Mar 05, 2024	48.4	48	45.4	0.4
Feb 05, 2024	45.4	45	45.7	0.4
Jan 04, 2024	45.7	44.3	45.4	1.4
Dec 05, 2023	45.4	45.3	45.2	0.1
Nov 06, 2023	45.2	46.1	44.4	-0.9
Oct 04, 2023	44.4	43.9	46	0.5
Sep 05, 2023	46	46.7	47.1	-0.7
Aug 03, 2023	47.1	47.4	48	-0.3
Jul 05, 2023	48	48	52.5
Jun 05, 2023	52.5	52.8	54.6	-0.3
May 04, 2023	54.6	56.3	53.9	-1.7